Is a 'stabilization fund' any different than zero rates and QE? Not really/BoJ/US economy
Maybe my long Hang Seng trade has some hope after all with the possibility of 2 trillion yuan (about $280b) of state buying support. After all, is a 'stabilization fund' really any different than the Fed's policy of zero interest rates and QE which is purposely meant to lift asset prices? Not really even though I'd prefer market forces and not government manipulation.
One way of playing this, which we are, is owning the Macau casino stocks which you've heard me mention before. While the economic mood in China is certainly dour, people there still love to gamble. For the first 3 weeks of January, gross gaming revenue is at 110% of its pre Covid pace according to Inside Asian Gaming. We also own AIA Group, one of the largest insurance companies in Asia that has a 100 yr history and was AIG's Asian business that was spun out when AIG went bust. Trip.com is another, the largest online travel agency in Asia. The Hang Seng rallied 2.6% on the news and still trades at just 7.5x earnings with an almost 5% dividend yield. The H share index trading in Hong Kong was higher by 2.8%.
The BoJ made no policy change overnight as expected but Governor Ueda still seems to be laying the groundwork for an end to NIRP and YCC. He again highlighted the importance of seeing quicker wage gains and some major union negotiations are currently taking place which Ueda talked about. "Prospects of higher wages are gradually affecting sales prices, which is leading to a gradual increase in service prices...If we get further evidence that a positive wage inflation cycle will heighten, we will examine the feasibility of continuing with the various steps we are taking under our massive stimulus program" said Ueda. Sounds like a guy ready to tighten again. Also, "The likelihood of realizing this outlook has continued to gradually rise." And finally of note, "Based on our current economic forecast, even if we were to end negative rates, monetary conditions will likely remain very accommodative."
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