Succinct review of the data dump
Initial jobless claims fell to 212k, 8k less than expected and down from 220k last week (revised up by 2k). Because a 189k print fell out of the calculation, the 4 week average rose to 219k from 213k. Continuing claims rose to 1.895mm, 15k more than anticipated and up 30k w/o/w. That is the most since November.
The bottom line remains the same. As measured here, the pace of firing’s remains muted (many who get let go might get severance and thus don’t file for claims) but the rate of hiring is slowing as seen with the elevated level of continuing claims.
Core retail sales in January unexpectedly fell by .4% m/o/m, well below the estimated rise of .2%. Also, December was revised down by 2 tenths. Not included in the core was motor vehicle sales which fell a sharp 1.7% m/o/m and building materials which plunged by 4.1% m/o/m. If you sell less existing homes, where the pace is the slowest in almost 30 years, there is less need for paint, flooring, carpet, etc…which people usually use upon a move in. Furniture sales rose 1.5% m/o/m but they are still down 7.5% y/o/y.
Elsewhere, sales fell for online retailing by .8% m/o/m but after rising by 1.4% last month and still higher by 8.2% y/o/y. Sales fell for clothing, electronics, sporting goods, miscellaneous stores and health/personal care. Supermarket sales were little changed and spending at restaurants/bars continues to be a standout, up .7% m/o/m and 5.9% y/o/y. Department store sales were higher by .5% but still lower 5.1% y/o/y.
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