I'll mention rising JGB yields AGAIN/Other notable stuff

I've been saying for a week now (actually a year when the BoJ started to widen yield curve control) that what is happening with the JGB market should not be ignored and I'll say it again today as the 10 yr yield jumped 5.5 bps overnight to 1.085%. I've been talking about growing pressure on the BoJ from the Ministry of Finance to stem the yen weakness via more rate hikes, along with the pressures of higher inflation. Today BoJ board member Seiji Adachi said "A monetary policy response would be one option if the impact on the achievement of the price stability target is predicted in the event that prolonged excessive yen weakness is affecting inflation." He also talked about a continuing slowing in the pace of JGB purchases. What makes this very notable is that he's a big dove. While JGB yields are higher, the yen still can't get out of its own way but I think it's worth getting long.

In response, the Australian 10 yr yield jumped 14 bps to 4.40%, the German 10 yr bund yield is quietly at the highest level since November at 2.63%, up 4 bps today. The US 10 yr yield is at a 4 week high. I'll also argue again, the epic bond bubble is not done unwinding. 

I should mention too that the CRB raw industrials index yesterday closed at the highest level since April 2023 and if you look at the chart below, there is a lot of upside potential from here as it still remains well below the 2022 peak. 

10 yr JGB Yield

German 10 yr Bund Yield

CRB Raw Industrials Index

Another weak Dallas manufacturing print seen yesterday of -19.4 followed a soft NY one and a slightly positive index read from the Philly region. This comes ahead of today's Richmond survey. The 6 month outlook also turned negative at -3.3 from +7.9. The rise in commodity prices flowed thru as the 6 month outlook for 'prices paid for raw materials' rose to the highest level since October.