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Sorry Benjamin Graham/EU/Air cargo rates/Other good stuff

Sorry Benjamin Graham/EU/Air cargo rates/Other good stuff

Peter Boockvar
Jun 10, 2024
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After watching and wasting my time watching Keith Gill on Friday, this was the perfect picture posted by Sam Ro on Twitter/X that morning before Gill's 'presentation' started. https://x.com/SamRo/status/1799046568370446365

In response to the parliamentary election results in the EU, the French CAC index is getting hit the hardest, down about 2%, though there is weakness across the board, as Macron in response is calling for an early parliamentary election in France (first round June 30, 2nd round July 7) where the results could influence his ability to get things done. The next presidential election in France is not until 2027.  

As for the overall election results, there was a reason why some in the UK were happy to leave the EU and that was to avoid the bureaucratic rule making of the EU parliament. Sovereign bond yields are higher by 5-10 bps and the euro is falling to the lowest level since early May vs the US dollar. Higher European yields though followed a jump in JGB yields and US rates are following. I don't expect immediate notable economic consequences from the election results though with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen likely getting a 2nd term. The BoJ meets this week.

Euro

With container shipping rates continuing to spike as seen last week, the switch by some to air is resulting in continuing gains in air cargo rates. On Friday the WorldACD Market Data said "Rate surge continues throughout May from Middle East & South Asia (MESA)...Amid continuing strong demand, and disruptions to ocean freight services caused by the attacks on container shipping, average air cargo rates in May of US $2.78 per kilo from MESA to worldwide destinations were up 47% y/o/y with tonnages up 17% higher, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD's data. And from MESA origins to Europe, May's average spot rate of around $3.35 per kilo was more than double the level in May last year, with the average spot rate in week 22 (27 May to 2 June) up by 128% y/o/y." https://www.worldacd.com/trend-reports/weekly/worldacd-weekly-air-cargo-trends-week-22/

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