I was off by about a half a trillion/Small business less optimistic, consumers more so/Semi reality/Other

I thought there was about $500b of commercial real estate debt due this year that need to be refinanced according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That ended up being way off as the MBA yesterday revised that number to $929 billion according to a Bloomberg News story. That happens to be about 20% of outstanding debt on US commercial real estate that includes multi family. Assume too that the interest rates on the loans maturing are less than half the rates on the loans on offer now. There is a long slog ahead for CRE and much more pain to come. And maybe likely realism of this could compress the bid and offer spreads which remain wide and which could help to get some transactions done in order to get through this with a lot of fresh needed equity but at much lower valuations. 

The breakdown of the amount coming due this year is about $440b owed to banks, about $234b "securitized in CMBS, CLOs and asset backed securities" and there is also about $170b lent by debt funds. Asset type, about 25% is in office. Understand though that it's not just office that is under threat, it is ANY real estate asset that has too much debt attached to it and that is coming due this year. 

The January NFIB small business optimism index fell 2 pts m/o/m to 89.9, the weakest since May 2023, continues to bounce along the bottom and remains well below the 50 yr average of 98. Adding more to the labor market debate, Plans to Hire fell 2 pts to 14%, the lowest since October 2016 if we don't include the Covid plunge. Job openings slipped by 1 pt but to the least since January 2021. Current compensation though held at the highest level since last May but comp plans did recede by 3 pts. There was a 1 pt drop in capital spending plans, though a 2 pt rise to -3% in Plans to Increase Inventory. 

Here are some more components: Those that Expect a Better Economy fell 2 pts after rising by 6 last month. Of particular note, those that Expect Higher Sales plunged by 12 pts to -16%. That is the worst print since last May. There was no change in Good Time to Expand and credit conditions were unchanged too. Selling prices did slip by 3 pts and with that, Earnings Trends dropped by 5 pts, after rising by 7 last month. Small business paid a 9% interest rate on loans on average, down from 9.8% in December, though still a very high number.