No surprise with ECB/Claims reverting higher again/Philly mfr'g the pleasant surprise

Firstly, no surprises yet with ECB statement and Lagarde’s presser so far. Another rate cut this year is likely but maybe is the caveat as the statement said again that “domestic price pressures are still high” and they are “not precommitting to a particular rate path.” Sovereign bond yields in Europe are little changed.

So after the holiday influenced initial claims figure last week that saw it fall to 223k (revised up by 1k), this week’s number reverted back to the higher trend at 243k and that was well above the estimate of 229k. It matches the highest print since August 2023. Smoothing out the noise saw the 4 week average move to 235k from 234k and that is just below the highest since last August.

Reflecting the continued moderation in the pace of hiring’s, continuing claims rose to 1.867mm from 1.847mm, about 10k more than expected and the highest since November 2021.