Payroll data, June rate cut odds up to 80%

Payrolls grew by 275k, 75k more than expected but the two prior months were revised down by a combined 167k so a miss relative to expectations when adding it all up. Most of that revision was to January as the original 353k print was revised to 229k and the private sector print of 317k was revised down to 177k.

The household survey reflected a job loss for the 4^th month in the past 5, down by 184k and combine that with an increase of 150k in the size of the labor force and the unemployment rate rose by two tenths to 3.9% which is the highest since January 2022. The U6 rate rose to 7.3%, also up one tenth, a level last seen in December 2021. An issue again is all the jobs came in part time as full time jobs were shed again.

Average hourly earnings rose one tenth m/o/m but after a .5% jump in January. They were higher by 4.3% y/o/y. Combine this with the average workweek of 34.3, in line with expectations and vs 34.2 last month (revised up from 34.1 but still the lowest in 13 years), average weekly earnings were higher by .4% m/o/m and 3.7% y/o/y. The participation rate held at 62.5% for a 3^rd month and it still has not gotten back to its February 2020 level of 63.3%. The 25-54 yr old cohort though saw a rise of 2 tenths m/o/m to 83.5% and that is above the February 2020 level of 83%. The employment to population ratio down ticked by one tenth to 60.1%. It was 61.1% in February 2020.