Post Fed/China debt swap/Another round of mixed earnings comments
Jay Powell in his press conference played it like I thought he would in trying to be non-committal on the December meeting but he clearly still has an easing bias. I was somewhat surprised though that he was so dismissive of the sharp rise in bond yields, particularly on the long end, after the September cut. He wasn't asked, and didn't mention the further dramatic easing of financial conditions with the stock market in particular at fresh highs, and gold wasn't not mentioned once in search of a message that it is sending. As gold is a currency that pays no yield, it is saying something. Also, he was dismissive of the rise in inflation expectations in the TIPS market post that September meeting.
Instead, we heard from him again that they remain restrictive (though certainly for some but not others), and they have a rate destination in mind with the pace to get there the only question. And with regards to the Trump win, until the Fed gets details about his economic plan, they have nothing to put into their econometric models he basically said. I get that, but shouldn't the Fed at least wait to see so they don't overdo the cuts until then?
As we finish the week, the other big news was the China plan announced today that they will lift the debt ceiling that local governments have. With that extra room, they will issue up to 10 trillion yuan (about $1.4 trillion) to refinance all the off balance sheet, so called hidden debt, that they have. Yes, they are just swapping one form of debt for another but the yields will likely be lower than on the debt they will pay off, freeing up some extra money and will have the debt exposure more transparent and above board.
Stocks though are trading lower because many have been still hoping for another form of fiscal stimulus, particularly for the consumer but forgetting that a massive pool of savings the Chinese consumer already has. The two biggest economic challenges of China's economy has been its residential real estate market and that excessive local government debt load and government officials continue to address both.
To the number of earnings calls to go through, which reflect still a mixed economy.
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