What's your definition of 'slightly'?

What’s your definition of ‘slightly’? Is it a 3% economy? 2%? 1%? I’d guess 1.5% even though we printed 3.4% in Q4 and the Atlanta Fed as of today thinks Q1 will be 2.9%.

‘Slightly’ though is how the Fed’s Beige Book described the US economy. “Overall economic activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February.” It didn’t say ‘strong’ and gets to my continued point of how mixed the internals of the US economy actually are. Further, “Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth – up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity.”

As for the biggest component of the US economy, “Consumer spending barely increased overall, but reports were quite mixed across Districts and spending categories. Several reports mentioned weakness in discretionary spending, as consumers’ price sensitivity remained elevated. Auto spending was buoyed notably in some Districts by improved inventories and dealer incentives, but sales remained sluggish in other Districts.”

Even the strength of the US economy over the past year, that being leisure/hospitality, is showing signs of mixed growth. “Tourism activity increased modestly, on average, but reports varied widely.”

We know manufacturing is still in a recession, though there are hopes of a bottoming. “Manufacturing activity declined slightly, as only three Districts reported growth in that sector.”

As I keep pointing out with C&I loans and confirmed by all the bank earnings and commentary, “bank lending was roughly flat overall.”

Helped by new build, “Residential construction increased a little, on average, and home sales strengthened in most Districts.” It is spring selling season, regardless of the pace seen. In contrast, nonresidential construction was flat, and commercial real estate leasing fell slightly.”

Continuing to highlight the BLS payroll report as an outlier relative to a variety of other labor market hiring stats and anecdotes, “Employment rose at a slight pace overall, with 9 Districts reporting very slow to modest increases, and the remaining 3 reporting no changes in employment.” Again, does this sound like a 3% economy?