Further labor market moderation/Productivity data

Initial jobless claims rose to 249k from 235k, the highest one week print since August 2023 and that was 13k more than expected. This brings the 4 week average to 238k from 236k and that is just below the highest since last summer. Continuing claims rose to 1.877mm, the most since November 2021 and up from 1.844mm in the week before.

Bottom line, the US labor market continues to soften.

Also out and confirming this, the Challenger report saw a drop in job cuts m/o/m but a rise by 9% y/o/y. Also, the announced hiring’s fell to the lowest monthly total since December 2023 and it is the slowest July since they started calculating hiring’s in 2009. They said, “The job market is indeed cooling, with hiring at the lowest point in over a decade. While we are seeing increased cuts in manufacturing sectors, both consumer and industrial, most industries are cutting below last year’s levels.” Tech continues to lead the pace of job cuts but has slowed by half from what was seen in 2023. So while there has been a rise in initial jobless claims, there still seems to be a desire to stick with ones employees as much as they can.