No chance they cut in March/ECB comments lead to bond rally/Earnings comments of note

We enter the week and ahead of the FOMC meeting pricing in a 52% chance of a March rate cut according to the fed funds futures. If today's current economic and global situation still stands on that March 20th meeting I see NO chance the Fed cuts. Does the Fed really want to stimulate the demand for goods with shipping rates up 200% in a month (see chart below)? Does the Fed really want to stimulate more demand with oil nearing $80 with major geopolitical hotspots flaring up? Does the Fed really want to stimulate the economy after the Q4 GDP print? Does the Fed really want to stimulate more euphoria in markets? I'll reevaluate thereafter as we get closer to the May 1st meeting and we see if there is further weakness in the labor market and if so, by how much. 

So, I think on Wednesday Powell with his words will take out the possibility of a March cut. After that at his presser, what we really need to hear details on is what are their plans for the balance sheet. We of course have details on the Treasury's quarterly refunding program and while I have no doubt there will be political considerations again on shortening the maturities so as not to upset the long end of the yield curve, the shorter Janet Yellen gets with issuance, the possible quicker liquidation of the Fed's reverse repo facility takes place. 

Then, the fate of QT really becomes center stage as the Fed tries to figure out what level of bank reserves is the right one. And by the way, on this REAL RATE debate, the average real rate in the 5 yr in the 10 years leading into the Great Financial Crisis, was 254 bps. The average 10 yr real rate was 294 bps. We are currently well below that. 

I'll add this, what if China is successful in stabilizing their economy and commodity prices rise again? The CRB raw industrials index, while well off its highs of a year ago, closed on Friday just off its highest level since October, ticking up over the past few weeks. The CRB food index is at a 6 week high, though also still well off its highs.