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Labor market comments in Beige Book/Earnings call rundown/BoJ has another reason to hike

Labor market comments in Beige Book/Earnings call rundown/BoJ has another reason to hike

Peter Boockvar
Sep 05, 2024
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I'll repeat here again what the Fed's Beige Book's bottom line was. Of the 12 Districts, nine saw "flat or declining activity" vs five in the prior Beige Book. In the other three, "economic activity grew slightly." There is a big disconnect here between what GDP is telling us and this. Maybe right now Gross Domestic Income is a better reflection of the growth rate of the US economy where it printed 1.3% growth in Q2, the same pace seen in Q1. 

Ahead of ADP today and payrolls tomorrow and the Fed's shift in attention to the labor market, here were some of the key comments on jobs. It reads to me like we're seeing a clear downshift in the pace of adding new workers.

Boston:

"Employment levels were unchanged on balance and no major layoffs were reported...Staffing contacts said that job creation had slowed owing to increased caution in the face of economic uncertainty. Employers reportedly became more selective about workers' qualifications and did not face substantial hiring difficulties."

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