Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)Initial jobless claims fell to 209k and that was 9k less than expected and the prior week was revised down by 7k to 210k. Also of note, continuing claims was 1.811, almost 100k less than expected and the prior week was revised down by 112k. However, the main reason for the big discrepancy between prints and the estimates was the once a year seasonal factor that was updated. The Dept of Labor said “This week’s release reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors.”

2)The Atlanta Fed's February wage growth tracker remained at up 5% y/o/y. While off its 2022 highs, it still remains well above its pre Covid pace. For 'job stayers,' the wage gain held at 4.7% and for 'job switcher' it fell to 5.9% from 6.1%, but compares with the 20 yr pre Covid average of 3.7%. 

3)The drop in mortgage rates back under 7% led to a 7.1% w/o/w rise in mortgage applications. Purchases were up by 4.7% and refi's by 12.2%, which still are mostly cash outs.

4)While the Cass Freight shipments index got a lift of 7.3% m/o/m in February because of the extra day and a weather recovery from the rougher January, Cass thinks we're seeing a turn up and the beginning of a restock. "While seasonality remains soft in the near term and there are no more extra days on the calendar, underlying volumes have shown improvement."

5)From Dick’s Sporting Goods: saw comps rise 2.4% "driven by growth in transactions, as we continue to gain market share...It's clear that sport and leading healthy active lifestyles are priorities for our athletes and they are increasingly looking to Dick's Sporting Goods to meet these needs."

6)From Ulta Beauty: "The growth in comp sales was driven by a 4.5% increase in transactions, average ticket declined 1.95 driven by lower units per transaction, which were partially offset by higher average selling price."