Euphoria update/Immigrant influence/Yes, gold is money/Other

To update stock market sentiment and the Citi Panic/Euphoria index, it got above the .41 that triggers the probability odds that Citi lays out that they claim are statistically significant. It closed at .42 Friday and Citi says this, to state again, "Historically, a reading below panic supports a better than 95% likelihood that stock prices will be higher one year later, while euphoria levels generate a better than 80% probability of stock prices being lower one year later. Currently the reading at or above 0.41 indicates euphoria and anything at or below -0.17 indicates panic." As I said in Friday's Succinct Summation, as for market positioning in this giddy environment, it't tough to time but important to recognize. 

Citi Panic/Euphoria Index

As for earnings season, I'll promise yet again, about 75% of companies reporting will exceed consensus earnings per share estimates. 

With respect to Friday's jobs number and the lack of clarity I had on the real impact of immigration on the data, illegal or legal, I did speak to my former boss Larry Lindsey in search of some help. He said that many illegals are being given work permits that would allow them to work without being a legal immigrant. This was allowed via presidential executive order that bypassed state law and Congress. So, they are showing up in the data, I'd guess more in the establishment survey as within the household survey I'd think they would be tough to reach. 

Also, in the BLS press release in the A7 section, they do break down the foreign born worker data. The number of foreign born employed persons in the US in February skyrocketed by 1.16mm after a drop of 545k in January. I say 'skyrocketed' because previously, I've never seen a number greater than about 800k. In March, seen Friday, this grew by another 112k. The foreign born civilian labor force was up by almost 1.3mm in February, though fell 229k in March. The foreign born unemployment rate in March fell back down to 3.6% after rising the prior two months. As for wages/salaries in the leisure and hospitality sector where I'm sure some are working in, wages grew .5% m/o/m and by 4.3% y/o/y.

Foreign Born Employed Persons

I want to talk gold again and say again that gold is money and therefore a currency and that is the main reason it is being bought. To grab from the video clip I sent last week the 2011 exchange between Ron Paul and Ben Bernanke when Paul asked Bernanke, "Do you think gold is money?" Bernanke's response, "No" to which Paul said "Even though gold has been money for 6,000 years, somebody reversed and eliminated that economic law?" Paul then asked, "Why do central banks hold it if it's not money?" Bernanke said, "It's a form of reserves" to which Paul asked, "Why don't they hold diamonds" and Bernanke responded, "Well, it's tradition, a long term tradition." Paul finished by saying "Some people still thinks it's money."