Again, be aware of one's investing surroundings/Other notable stuff

Again, it's important to be aware of one's investing surroundings, particularly when it comes to sentiment when it gets extreme. The updated Citi Panic/Euphoria index is on the cusp of entering euphoric territory. What does it mean if it gets there? According to Citi, "euphoria levels generate a better than 80% probability of stock prices being lower one year later. Currently the reading at or above .41 indicates euphoria." It closed at .34 vs .30 in the week before. That's the highest read since mid January 2022. 

Also, the Market Vane Consensus Bulls reached 78, a level last seen in December 2013, h/t to my friend Helene Meisler. "The Bullish Consensus measures the futures market sentiment each day by following the trading recommendations of leading Commodity Trading Advisors."

Though crude oil is now trading near $80 again, there was a decline in the Baker Hughes Rig Count of 2 rigs to 497. With an incredible increase in the efficiency of existing wells in 2023 that brought US production to record highs in the face of a continued decline in rigs used, at some point production will have difficulty increasing from here unless the rig count rises. We remain bullish on long energy stocks.