A clip to Q3 GDP/Confidence rises, particularly in the stock market/Job openings continue to fall

We’re going to see a clip to Q3 GDP estimates after the much higher than expected goods trade deficit in September where imports grew by 3.8% m/o/m while exports dropped by 2%. On the import side, it’s tough to know how much was front loading ahead of the port strikes. The $108.2b goods trade deficit (so not including services) was the 2^nd largest ever.

The October consumer confidence index from the Conference Board rose to 108.7 from 99.2 and that was much above the estimate of 99.5. Both main components were up m/o/m. One yr inflation expectations rose one tenth m/o/m to 5.3% which matches a 4 month high. The Conference Board said the uptick in inflation expectations could be led by food and services. They also said “Mentions of prices and inflation continued to top write-in responses as topics affecting consumers’ views of the economy, but more respondents mentioned slower inflation and lower grocery prices.”

The main reason for the confidence lift was the improvement in the answers to the labor market questions. Those that said jobs were Plentiful rose to a 4 month high while those that said they were Hard to Get fell after the rise last month. There was also a gain in those that expect ‘more jobs’ in the coming 6 months. Income expectations were unchanged m/o/m.

Spending intentions were mixed as they rose for autos but were unchanged for homes after rising in September with the drop in mortgage rates.