Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events

Positives,

1)September PPI was flat at the headline level but up .2% m/o/m core. The headline print was one tenth under the estimate and the core rate was as expected. Due to rounding though, the gains exceeded expectations with a 1.8% y/o/y gain headline and 2.8% core vs 1.9% and 2.6% in the month before. If we take out trade too, prices were up by 3.2% y/o/y vs 3.3% in the month before and up one tenth m/o/m. Core goods prices rose .2% m/o/m and 2% y/o/y. Service prices rose .2% m/o/m too and by 3.1% y/o/y.

2)Container shipping rates continue lower. The Shanghai to Rotterdam route saw the price of a 40 ft container drop by another $224 w/o/w, the 12^th week in a row of declines and quite a relief ahead of the holidays. While still about double where they started the year, at $3,591 it is less than the half the July peak of $8,267.

3)The September NFIB Small Business Optimism index rose a touch m/o/m to 91.5 from 91.2, though remaining soft. The 3 month average is now 92.1 and the 6 month average is 91.3 and continues to bounce along the bottom. Going back to 1975, the NFIB Uncertainty Index rose to a record high. The bottom line from the NFIB, "Small business owners are feeling more uncertain than ever. Uncertainty makes owners hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines. Although some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are left questioning whether future business conditions will improve."

4)From Delta: "Consumers are continuing to prioritize premium experiences, and our core customer base is in a healthy financial position with travel remaining a top spend category. Corporate travel continues to improve and Delta is well positioned as the business carrier of choice. And importantly, domestic supply growth continues to rationalize."

5)The UK said its economy grew by .2% m/o/m in August as expected with a rebound in manufacturing production offsetting modest growth in services, but retail was good. Construction was an add-on too to growth. 

6)August German export figures surprised and rose by 1.3% m/o/m instead of falling by 1% as estimated.  Exports to the US led the way, up by 5.5% m/o/m. They were up to their other important trading partner, China, by 1.9%.