Home prices now up 48% since Feb 2020/Consumer confidence mixed/Mfr'g recession continues

From February 2020, right before the Fed responded to Covid with massive QE, including the purchases of MBS, along with a trip back to zero rates, which we know was followed by a dramatic cycle of rate hikes and also QT, through April 2024 the S&P CoreLogic index measure of home prices is up 48%. The Fed’s lucky that rents instead of home prices are used in CPI and PCE because Rent of Primary Residence in the same time period (actually through May 2024 as we have data on that) is up ‘just’ 23% instead. If home prices were used instead, CPI would have been double digits at its peak.

Their index in April rose 6.3% y/o/y, a slight downshift from 6.5% price growth in March. San Diego led the price gain, up 10.3% y/o/y followed by New York at 9.4% while Portland and Denver saw home price growth a touch below 2%.

Bottom line, we know the problem here as it’s clear, that 48% home price rise combined with a more than doubling in mortgage rates has completely turned the US housing market upside down and has made it very tough for a young, first time buyer to buy a home. Many are renting instead.

S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index

The June Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board fell a touch m/o/m to 100.4 from 101.3 and that was as expected. That figure though is the 2nd lowest since last October and remaining well below the February 2020 figure of 132.6. The Present Situation component rose slightly but was offset by the drop in Expectations. One year inflation expectations fell one tenth to 5.3% and compares with 5.3% in March and April so holding steady around these levels.