Further mfr'g weakness in Chicago region/Confidence in the labor market falters/Home prices
I mentioned the now 2 yr contraction in the Dallas manufacturing index, which followed continued softness from NY and a rebound in Philly and today the Chicago April manufacturing index just posted at 37.9 print, well below 50 and vs the estimate of 45. I don't have the internals yet as the release is delayed to non-subscribers. Reconciling all of this, the ISM manufacturing index is expected to come in at exactly 50.
The April Conference Board Consumer confidence index fell to 97 from 103.1, 7 pts below expectations and that is the weakest print since July 2022. The Present Situation fell by 4 pts while the Expectations component was down by almost 8 pts. One yr inflation expectations held at 5.3% for the 3rd month in the past 4.
The key culprit in the confidence drop was the softer answers to the labor market questions. Those that said jobs were Plentiful fell by 1.5 pts to the lowest level since November. Those that said they are Hard to Get rose by 2.7 pts, the most since November. Also of note, there was a 2.6 pt drop in those expecting 'more jobs' in the coming 6 months, the least since October 2011 and that INCLUDES Covid. Income expectations fell too, by 1.9 pts m/o/m for those expecting an increase.
Spending intentions also fell across the board for autos, homes and major appliances.
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