Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)Payrolls in September grew by 254k, about 100k more than expected and the two prior months were revised up by a combined 72k. The household survey said 450k net new jobs were created and because it exceeded the 150k person rise in the labor market, the unemployment rate ticked down by one tenth to 4.1%. The all in U6 rate fell by 2 tenths m/o/m to 7.7%. About half of the 450k came from the 16-19 yr old cohort as the 25-54 yr old grouping saw jobs rise by 48k. 55+ saw a gain of 111k. Average hourly earnings rose .4% m/o/m, one tenth above the estimate and August was revised up by one tenth to .5% growth. Versus last year they are up 4% and which compares with the 2.5% annual trend pre Covid.

2)On the firing side, Challenger said job cuts fell 4% sequentially but are up 53% y/o/y. For the full year, job cuts are up about 1% y/o/y YTD.

3)Job openings in August bounced back above 8mm at 8.04mm vs 7.71 in July. A rise in the need for construction workers was the main reason for the lift.

4)The port strike is over, hopefully for good.

5)To the weekly rundown of container shipping prices I'll add here the Shanghai to New York route and prices fell by $106 w/o/w to $5,922. The peak this year was $9,612 in mid July and it started the year at $3,074. The trips to Rotterdam and LA fell too. We’ll see what they do with the strike over.

6)The September ISM services PMI rose to 54.9 from 51.5 and that was well above the estimate of 51.7 and the highest since February. With regards to industry breadth, 12 industries saw growth vs 10 in August. 5 said their business contracted vs 7 in the month before. The bottom line from ISM was this, “The stronger growth indicated by the index data was generally supported by panelists’ comments; however, concerns over political uncertainty are more prevalent than last month. Pricing of supplies remains an issue with supply chains continuing to stabilize; one respondent voiced concern over potential port labor issues. The interest-rate cut was welcomed; however, labor costs and availability continue to be a concern across most industries.”