Why are tax receipts lower than expected?/So many anecdotes today continue to point to the uneven economy I see

If the economy is so good, believed by some, why are federal tax receipts coming in less than anticipated? Fair question I believe and gets to my continued point that I think the US economy is very uneven with more pros mixed with cons than I've seen in all my years researching, analyzing, and investing in markets/macro and individual companies. 

I say this because this is what the US Treasury said yesterday in the announcement that they needed to borrow more than expected in Q2, "The borrowing estimate is $41 billion higher than announced in January 2024, largely due to lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning of quarter cash balance." The bold is mine as with an unemployment rate still below 4% and the economy supposedly 'strong', why are tax receipts coming in less than expected? 

Just maybe, the massive government spending/tax and grant incentives is distorting the economic stats to such an extent that it really muddies the economic situation in terms of impact and trying to figure out what's real and what's artificially induced is that much more difficult as a result. After all, when the government spends $2 trillion more than what they take in, that excess flows everywhere into the private sector either directly or indirectly. 

There was something else that was interesting out of the Treasury yesterday, it was a statement on the economy from Eric Van Nostrand, 'performing duties of Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.' There is this empirical assumption that the US economy, because of labor force growth forecasts, only needs to hire about 100,000 on a net basis to keep the unemployment rate for rising over a sustainable period. 

Well, Eric said this, "Recent analysis suggests that above-trend immigration - which was postponed during the pandemic - has increased the breakeven pace of job growth needed to sustainably maintain a stable unemployment rate with population growth. Current estimates are above 200,000 jobs, roughly double the estimated breakeven pace before the pandemic." Interesting and we'll see. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2303

I've opined before that many conflate the real meaning of the Philips Curve. They think that a tight labor market leads to higher inflation as many have sold the theory that way. That wasn't what Philips said. He actually said a tight labor market leads to higher wages, simple supply and demand. Obviously though the rest of us can take that one step further and say that higher wages leads to higher prices but only sometimes. When it doesn't is when productivity gains offset higher labor costs and thus there is no need to raise prices. However, when productivity increasing options are limited, price is an easy lever to pull. 

There is no better example than seeing what is going on with California fast food joints in response to the new $20 per hour mandated minimum wage law. I mentioned last week what Chipotle said in that they are raising prices in the state by 6-7%. Here was the WSJ article that touched on this whole issue yesterday, titled, "California Fast-Food Chains are Now Serving Sticker Shock," https://www.wsj.com/business/hospitality/california-fast-food-chains-are-now-serving-sticker-shock-64009282?mod=itp_wsj. So yes, here is a perfect example of when higher labor costs lead to higher retail prices.