Those industries most interested/The Fed/Sentiment/Earnings comments

I guess industry wise, I'd say autos, the financial sector (particularly regional banks) and energy are the three most focused on the election outcome. This with respect to the EV mandates, who will run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and permitting for both energy facilities (LNG for example) and drilling. Broadly, who will run the FTC will hugely matter too, particularly for the tech sector and M&A bankers. The healthcare sector is the most influenced by government, via Medicare and Medicaid payments, but I don't see much of a change regardless of who wins because of how entrenched policy already is. 

With respect to what the market is betting on in terms of the winner, we can of course look at the official betting markets but can also watch the direction of the US dollar. A rising dollar was an implied bet on Trump as much higher tariffs would help the dollar as it would lower our trade deficit, in theory. A falling dollar, the opposite bet on Harris. Today, the US dollar is falling to a two week low. 

With the Fed this week, they will likely do as the market has priced in and cut 25 bps but considering how much rates have risen in their face since the September 50 bps cut decision, along with a bunch of conflicting economic data and anecdotes which has seemed to be more confusing than clarifying, shouldn't the Fed from a risk management standpoint do nothing on Thursday and give themselves more time to be 'confident' in the inflation and labor outlook? I think so as they can always cut again in December and they've already gotten 50 bps of cuts out of the way. 

On this whole debate over whether the Fed is restrictive or not, again it depends on who you are and what your perspective is. Last week we saw core PCE up 2.7% y/o/y, and core CPI above 3%. Historically, a REAL rate of about 200 bps was perfectly normal, which is about where we are today. Anything related to the financial markets is hardly restrictive. If you're in commercial real estate or are a small business with a cost of capital of 10%, they certainly are.