Now a jump ball and Yellen missed a window/Earnings comments

All it took was one line in Jay Powell's prepared speech that has made a December rate cut closer to 50/50, right now at 62%. After CPI, it was 80%. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully." His words are carefully crafted in a prepared speech with every sentence having a purpose and if he wants to send a signal, this is how he does it. Maybe they cut, maybe they don't, but it is now a jump ball. 

Something else to point out here. The peak easing this year priced in for year end 2025 was an expected fed funds rate of about 2.80%. That is now about 3.90%, so the market has taken away 110 bps of rate cuts. Janet Yellen too has front loaded Treasury issuance in bills, above the recommended level of 15-20% of total offerings by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. This, instead of issuing more longer term coupons when the 10 yr yield was back under 4%. While no one at the Treasury will admit it, they were playing the yield curve, didn't want to upset the longer end of the curve with too much supply and instead with the back up in short rates, missed an opportunity to term out US debt. 

With the earnings call rundown, I'll start with Instacart from a few days ago. They are benefiting from the secular shift to online ordering and convenience. On a question about the consumer, "we are seeing very strong consumer demand. And in fact, we track that very closely and we look at a lot of data points. We haven't seen meaningful trade down, whether you look at it on a pair item, like types of item basis, whether you look at different types of retailers, with the notable exceptions of clubs being very strong. We are also not seeing different behaviors across income segments...And we think that's a testament to the fact that people really do value convenience and we are able to provide that to them."

From Disney, a stock we own and I'll hone in on the parks/experience comments for macro color on the consumer: