More anecdotes of slowing pace of hiring/Other great company comments/Rents and other stuff

Let's start with rate cut odds for March. They stand at 46% as of this writing vs 42% one week ago  and 58% two weeks ago. How will Powell weave in the dramatic easing of financial conditions with moderating inflation but with risks to the upside on the goods side because of the unsettling geopolitics and an economy that has some holes but still is seeing a consumer chug along and with massive government spending and stimulus flowing thru the economy? What's the plan for the balance sheet? With the balance sheet, the RRP was $578b as of last night vs $823b on the date of the December FOMC meeting. If Janet Yellen today announces that she's issuing a heavy amount of T-bills, this facility could be near zero in a few months. Bank reserves are about $3.5 trillion and where they were at that December get together. 

It's quite ironic that indirectly Janet Yellen is influencing monetary policy and QT. I wonder what Jay Powell thinks about that.

I mentioned yesterday that it seems like every day we are seeing a high profile company announce layoffs and just yesterday we saw UPS, Block, Paypal and the Nasdaq do so. I know big cap tech is the earnings focus today but if you didn't see, Robert Half stock is looking down 7% pre market. The staffing company said this on their earnings call, "Global labor demand continues to be resilient and talent shortages persist, although both are modestly below their peaks. Ongoing economic uncertainty continues to impact client and candidate confidence, as well as hiring activity and new project starts." Their Q4 revenue was down 15% y/o/y but they spun the outlook as half full, "we're encouraged that our improving weekly revenue trends that began in the third quarter and continued into the 4th quarter are approaching a positive inflection point." That said, revenues for the first 3 weeks of January are down 17% y/o/y. Specifically, "Permanent placement revenues in December were down 22% vs December 2022...For the first four weeks of January, permanent placement revenues were down 25% compared to the same period of 2023."

Finally, "While job opening demand continues to be above historical levels and candidate supply remains tight, the velocity of hiring remains impacted, and there is less churn in the labor force. The Great Resignation following Covid has given way to the Big Stay, and employee attrition is down significantly across the globe."

I gleaned this from the Microsoft call on the labor market and their LinkedIn division. "LinkedIn revenue increased 9% and 8% in constant currency, ahead of expectations, driven by slightly better than expected performance across all businesses." That said, "In our Talent Solutions business bookings growth was again impacted by weaker hiring environment in key verticals." I didn't get much elsewhere on the macro.

Also on the softening labor market, Manpower reported last night and said this:

"Employers, particularly in large enterprise organizations, remains cautious, pausing on non-critical investments and postponing projects until more clarity on the outlook emerges. Our industry is always the first to feel the impact of economic softening and this cycle is no different, as we have seen employers reduce their temporary and permanent hiring, while lowering their project spend appetite. This is most noticeable in Europe and in North America, and we haven't seen any inflection point yet of improving demand for our services and solutions in those regions."

"Based on trends in the fourth quarter, and January activity to date, our forecast is cautious and anticipates that the first quarter will continue to be challenging with further declines in our businesses in Europe which include expected lower seasonal bench utilization in the first quarter in certain markets such as the Nordics...Our forecast for Q1 also anticipates ongoing low levels of permanent recruitment activity."