Notwithstanding headline GDP, more evidence of the very mixed and uneven economy that I see
From all the data and earnings information and color I continue to see, notwithstanding the headline GDP prints and expectations for Q3, the US economy is being held on his shoulders by a tremendous amount of government spending and legislative incentives, anything related to AI spend and higher income consumer spending on leisure/hospitality/travel. Everything else is seeing little to no growth. And just read below some of the earnings related comments I gleaned and I think it helps to point to that conclusion, again.
We can easily point to the Taiwan Semi numbers for the reason for the pre market lift in the futures as both the quarter and the guidance exceeded expectations. They said the 12.8% sequential revenue growth "was supported by strong smartphone and AI related demand for our industry leading 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer technologies."
"We continue to observe extremely robust AI related demand from our customers throughout the 2nd half of 2024."
They also raised their cap ex estimates "As the strong structural AI related demand continues, we continue to invest to support our customers growth."
Answering a question on the trend in AI investments, its sustainability and the broad market questions about the returns on this massive buildout the CEO said, "Let me answer your question. Simply, whether this AI demand is real or not, okay, and my judgement is real...And why I say it's real? Because we have our real experience. We are using the AI and machine learning in our fab and R&D operations. By using AI, we are able to create more value by driving greater productivity, efficiency, speed, qualities."
From Synchrony, the private label credit card focused finance company whose stock popped yesterday but these comments don't read so well:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Boock Report to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.