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The BoJ already has shaky knees with tightening/Travel & leisure story becoming more mixed

The BoJ already has shaky knees with tightening/Travel & leisure story becoming more mixed

Peter Boockvar
Aug 07, 2024
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We know markets love the soothing talk of a central banker who tries to calm markets. The Deputy Governor of the BoJ, Shinichi Uchida, came out today and said "As we're seeing sharp volatility in domestic and overseas financial markets, it's necessary to maintain current levels of monetary easing for the time being...Personally, I see more factors popping up that require us being cautious about raising interest rates." This committee just can't get anything right as if now they don't hike again, the carry trade will just resume again, and inflation and a weak currency will continue to eat away at the standard of living of the Japanese people. They are trapped.

Here is the yen intraday move when he said it:

Yesterday the NY Fed came out with its Household Debt and Credit Report and they said that aggregate debt at the household level rose to $17.8 trillion, up $109 billion q/o/q. It's important though to compare with GDP rather than just on an absolute basis. With regards to delinquency rates, they were unchanged from the prior quarter at 3.2%. Specifically, "Delinquency transition rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages increased slightly." However, the 30 day delinquency rate for credit cards at 9.1% and autos at 8% are the highest since 2011. 

Also of interest, "Homeowners continued to increase HELOC balances as an alternative way to extract home equity." At current rates, they'd only be doing so if they needed the money. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc

Credit Card 30 day Delinquency Rate

Auto Loan 30 day Delinquency Rate

Out a few days ago, the quarterly Senior Loan Officer said this:

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