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Are we there yet? Just about it seems/Company comments/India blows the doors off in Q4

Are we there yet? Just about it seems/Company comments/India blows the doors off in Q4

Peter Boockvar
Feb 29, 2024
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Are we there yet? It seems that maybe finally we are and I'm referring to the end of negative interest rate policy in Japan and yield curve control. BoJ board member Hajime Takata said today "We are finally in a situation where we can see achieving the goal of stabilizing the inflation rate at 2% through wage increases...We want to finally confirm positive developments such as wage increases in early spring." He then said this, "We need to consider flexible and nimble steps including for an exit, for instance, the end of the yield curve control framework, negative interest rates and what to do with the overshooting commitment." This all said by him, he then basically said don't get carried away however as "We wouldn't just keep hiking over and over." The yen is rallying, JGB yields are rising (though off its intraday high on that last comment) which is leading to a global rise in rates but the Nikkei hung in there, down only .10%. 

2 day Intraday chart of Yen

2 day Intraday 10 yr JGB Yield

The other central bank thing of note was really interesting as we debate here what the Fed's plans are for its balance sheet. Yesterday the Deputy Governor of the BoE said they may get rid of ALL the bonds they've bought during their stages of QE. Dave Ramsden said "The Monetary Policy Committee could unwind the APF (Asset Purchase Facility) fully, if it judged necessary for policy reasons, and the level of the PMRR (Preferred Minimum Range of Reserves) should not affect this judgment. Our approach differs from other central banks, notably the Federal Reserve, which aims to maintain its QE portfolio at a level that will back an 'ample' level of reserves." He said the BoE could use other liquidity facilities to help banks if bank reserves get low rather than its QE bloated balance sheet. Wow if it comes to be the case. The 10 yr Gilt yield is higher by 20 bps this week to 4.24%, the highest since late November, partly in response. The pound though is flat on the week.

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