'Every picture tells a story' sang Rod Stewart/Other good stuff

So we finished the day with the first rate cut fully priced in for the day after the presidential election and with an 80% chance of an additional one in December. That compares with a 56% chance of a 2nd one in December as of Monday before PPI and CPI came out. In contrast to the denial that politics don't matter, a cut right before (September) or one right after the election (waiting for the day after itself is political) would of course be slapped with political motive criticism so I'd say they wait until December. 

Whenever a central banker speaks and was not scheduled to do so in public, you always have to wonder the motive. NY Fed president John Williams was not on the public speaking docket yesterday that I saw or today but spoke to Reuters yesterday, post CPI in which he said "I think the data are broadly consistent with the overall trend that we've seen over the last, almost two years", and released today and said this:

"I don't see any indicators now telling me, oh, that there's a reason to change the stance of monetary policy now, and I don't expect that. I don't expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on the inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term." He went on, "Monetary policy is restrictive. It is helping the economy get into better balance. Monetary policy is in a good place." Of course, 'restrictive' for some and clearly not for others. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/transcript-interview-with-new-york-feds-williams-2024-05-16/

I mentioned yesterday the data from the NY Fed's Household Debt and Credit survey, particularly on the 'serious delinquent' stats. A visual is better though specifically with what is being seen for credit cards and auto loans. It speaks for itself as the cost of unpaid balances is obviously much more expensive now.