The inflation stat rundown and claims data

December CPI headline and core both rose .3% m/o/m with the former one tenth above the estimate and the latter in line. The y/o/y gains are now 3.4% and 3.9% vs 3.1% and 4.0% in November. Energy prices rose .4% m/o/m after the big declines in the prior two months but still down 2% y/o/y. Food prices grew by .2% m/o/m and the monthly gains have been at a pretty consistent .2-.3% pace. They are up 2.7% y/o/y. The price of eating out remained pretty elevated, rising .3% m/o/m for full service and by 4.5% y/o/y. Limited service restaurant prices were up .4% m/o/m and by 5.9% y/o/y. 

On the services side, ex energy prices rose .4% m/o/m, the same pace seen in November and 5.3% y/o/y. The rent growth being reflected is still above market with OER up .5% m/o/m for a 2nd month and 6.3% y/o/y while Rent of Primary Residence was higher by .4% m/o/m and 6.5% y/o/y. Medical care costs jumped .6% m/o/m for a 2nd month as we've flushed thru the distortive health insurance calculations. Health insurance prices rose 1.1% m/o/m for a 3rd straight month. Vehicle insurance prices continue to be ridiculous, rising 1.5% in the month and by 20.3% y/o/y. Thankfully maintenance and repair prices finally cooled, falling by .3% m/o/m, though still up 7.1% y/o/y. Hotel prices were up by .4% m/o/m but after falling by 1.1% in the month before while airline fares rose 1% in December m/o/m, though still down 9.4% y/o/y. 

On the goods side, core prices were unchanged m/o/m and up .2% y/o/y. Both new and used car prices were up with the former up 1% y/o/y and the latter down 1.3% y/o/y. When thinking about auto prices in the next year or two, OEM's and dealers don't want to go back to the high inventory levels of pre covid and we're still recycling thru the reduced pace of new cars which leads to less used cars, eventually, on the market. Apparel prices were little changed m/o/m and up 1% y/o/y. Things related to the home in the 'household furnishings and supplies' category saw prices lower by .4% m/o/m and .9% y/o/y.