Surveyed right before the election, confidence rises

To start, the UoM consumer confidence survey concluded on Monday before the election. When asked, the sentiment was 50/50 on the outcome.

The November UoM consumer confidence figure rose to 73 from 70.5, 2 pts above expectations and that is the highest since April when it printed 77.2. It still though remains well below the February 2020 level of 101. The internals were mixed as Current Economic Conditions fell .5 pt m/o/m but was more than offset by a 4.4 pt rise in Expectations. One yr inflation expectations fell one tenth to 2.6% and that is the least since December 2020 helped by lower gasoline price expectations but the 5-10 yr guess rose to 3.1% which matches the highest since November 2023.

A drag on current conditions was the -1 print for a 2nd month with regards to the income component and to this, just 27.8% on average of families surveyed think that income will exceed inflation over the next 5 years, near the lost since 1997 when this was first calculated. Positively, expectations for lower unemployment in the coming 12 months rose 4 pts.