Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events:

Positives,

1)The November NFIB Small Business Optimism index jumped 8 pts m/o/m, a large one month move to 101.7. That's the highest since June 2021. Where the lift was most notable was in the outlook as the 'Expect Better Economy' component spiked to +36% from -5%. Also, Expect Higher Sales went from -4% to +14% and Good Time to Expand rose 8 pts m/o/m to 14%. Capital spending plans rose by 6 pts to 28%, the most since January 2022 and there was a 3 pt gain in Plan to Increase Inventory. The NFIB said "The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners. Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three year streak of record high uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations."

2)Mortgage apps for the week ended 12/6 rose 5.4% w/o/w but all driven by a 27% jump in refi's even though mortgage rates were little changed.

3)Likely due to the pull forward of goods ordering ahead of possible tariffs, the Cass Freight shipments index in November rose 2.8% m/o/m and the .7% y/o/y fall is the smallest in 21 months. Of note on pricing, the inferred freight rate was up .4% m/o/m. While still down 3.1% y/o/y, "Most of the pressure is now due to lower fuel prices. Underlying rates have started to inch higher more broadly." This is being reflected in the lift in the Dry Van per mile cost which is at the highest since July.

4)From RH: "The positive inflection of our business continued to gain momentum with 3rd quarter demand increasing 13% despite operating in the worst housing market in 30 years. Our vector is increasing in both magnitude and direction with November demand up 18% as the most prolific product transformation and platform expansion in the history of our industry continues to unfold."

5)From Costco: "Traffic or shopping frequency increased 5.1% worldwide and 4.9% in the US. Our average transaction or ticket was up .1% worldwide and .3% in the US. This includes the headwinds from gas deflation and FX. Adjusted for those items, ticket would have been up 2% worldwide and up 2.3% in the US...Gold and jewelry, gift cards, home furnishings, sporting goods, health and beauty aids, luggage, kiosk and hardware were all up double digits."

6)From Macy's: "Let me talk about the high end, first of all, in terms of the sales guide. When we think about what we've seen quarter to date, we're seeing sequential improvement across many dimensions of our business. We're seeing sequential improvement in digital, we're seeing sequential improvement in stores, we're seeing sequential improvement in Macy's nameplate, we're seeing sequential improvement in luxury, both Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury. We're seeing sequential improvement in F50. We're seeing sequential improvement in the other go-forward stores that have not received the investments yet."