Claims data little changed/Philly mfr'g rebounds but internals still mixed

Initial jobless claims totaled 212k, 3k less than expected and unchanged with the week before. The 4 week average of 215k was also flat with last week. Continuing claims were also little changed but holding above 1.8mm at 1.812mm, near the highest since November 2021.

The bottom line remains the same with the muted pace of firing’s, at least as measured here, and the slowing pace of hiring’s in every stat and anecdote outside of the BLS payroll report.

In contrast to the negative April NY manufacturing index and adding hope that US manufacturing is finally showing signs of bottoming, the April Philly index bounced to +15.5 from +3.2 and that was well above the estimate of +2.0. The internals though were hugely volatile and much more mixed with new orders up by 7 pts to +12.2 but backlogs little changed at just above zero at .8 while inventories fell more than 13 pts to -8.9. Employment remained deeply negative at -10.7 which is the weakest since 2016 not including Covid. The workweek plummeted to -18.7 from -.2. Outside of Covid, go back to June 2009 the last time it was that low. Delivery times (capturing the supply chain) was less negative but still reflecting much smoother supply chains. Prices paid though jumped to 23 from 3.7 and that is a 4 month high and likely coincident with the rise in commodity prices we’ve seen. Prices received, where prices paid takes time to flow thru to, rose a touch to 5.5 from 4.6.