Claims data and something to watch in Challenger report/ECB and Lagarde lead to bond rally

Initial jobless claims were as expected at 217k vs the same amount last week. As a 220k print dropped out, the 4 week average was little changed too at 212k vs 213k in the week before. Continuing claims rose again by 8k to 1.906mm which is the most since mid November.

So, the bottom line stays the same with slowing hiring but modest firing. That said on firing, I want to mention here the Challenger Jobs Report too that just came out. Job cuts rose 3% in February from January and is higher by 9% y/o/y. Challenger said “With the exclusion of the first two months of last year, it is the highest January through February total since 2009.”

And their bottom line, “As we navigate the start of 2024, we’re witnessing a persistent wave of layoffs. Businesses are aggressively slashing costs and embracing technological innovations, actions that are significantly reshaping staffing needs.”