A look at capital spending, continuing to flat line

July durable goods orders were weaker than expected, especially when we include the June downward revisions. Non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft, a core read, fell one tenth m/o/m vs the estimate of no change and June was revised lower by 4 tenths to a gain of .5% and after falling by .9% m/o/m in May.

Orders for vehicles/parts fell 2.6% m/o/m after dropping by .7% in June. They are still up 3.1% y/o/y though. Orders for computers/electronics were down by .7% and up just .9% y/o/y. For all the excitement and hype with AI spend, there has been very little spend elsewhere. Specifically hearing from a variety of semi names, the AI business is the only area of strength, with inventory adjustments still going on everywhere else. Orders for electrical equipment fell by .4% after rising by .8% in June. They are up 2.4% y/o/y. Orders for primary metals fell for a 3^rd month but were little changed for fabricated ones.