Claims data, yields rise in response/Philly mfr'g joins NY in contracting again/Housing stats

Initial jobless claims fell to just 187k from 203k last week for the week ended 1/13. The estimate was 205k. I’m sure there was some MLK holiday related seasonal calculation issue but we’ll see next week for sure. Smoothing this out has the 4 week average at 203k vs 208k in the week before. Continuing claims fell for a 3^rd week to 1.806mm which is the least since mid October, though still holding above 1.8mm. We don’t know how much of the recent dip is related to people finding new jobs or because benefits have expired.

Either way, the bottom line on the pace of firing’s remains the same in that it is muted. Hiring’s are slowing, touched upon in the Beige Book but no acceleration lately of that moderation.

Treasury yields rose immediately in response.

Initial Claims 4 week average

Continuing Claims

Following the awful NY manufacturing index seen for January yesterday, the Philly manufacturing read remained negative too at -10.6 vs -12.8 in December and 4 pts below expectations.