Can we be even more confused?

While ADP said 107k private sector jobs were created in January, the BLS said nevermind, it was 317k and with a headline print of 353k. And, the two prior months were revised up by a combined 126k. The household survey was much more subdued, saying that 31k jobs were lost while the size of the labor force shrunk by 175k, thus keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% for the 3^rd straight month. The all in U6 rate actually ticked up by one tenth to 7.2%. As part of this uptick and of note too, there were increases in ‘slack work’ and ‘can’t find full time.’

If there was to be a big offset and fly to the large headline upside was hours worked tanked to just 34.1 from 34.3. Outside of Covid, that is the lowest since 2010 which means each worker is being used less on average. The participation rate saw no change at 62.5% while the employment to population ratio was up by one tenth to 60.2%.

Average hourly earnings were up by .6% m/o/m, double the estimate but with people working less hours, the average jumped. Average weekly earnings saw no changed m/o/m.