25 or 50 bp cut at 2pm est Wednesday is not binary event

The debate here on the Fed doesn't have to be binary. It's not 25 or 50 bps in cuts, take it or leave it. I say that because the signaling by Jay Powell in the press conference will likely be just as important. For example, the Fed might cut 25 bps but maybe Powell says they will be ready to cut 50 bps at one of the following few meetings if the data warrants it. Or, they might cut 50 bps but Powell will say don't get used to that cadence and they were more interested in front loading the first cut, thus implying only 25 bps cuts come next. Bottom line, what they announce at 2pm est Wednesday could be enhanced or blunted by what Powell says at 2:30pm. 

If my chips were on the table, I'd say Powell does the latter and goes 50 bps but warns markets (in his own way) that for now this is a rate 'tweaking' cycle, not the beginning of something pronounced that the market is currently pricing in. The reality of circumstances can of course change that as events unfold but that's how I think he'll stage it at least on Wednesday.