CPI data rundown

February CPI rose .4% both headline and core with the former in line with expectations while the latter was one tenth above. Versus last year, prices rose 3.2% headline and 3.8% core vs 3.1% and 3.9% respectively. Energy prices rebounded by 2.3% m/o/m though still lower by 1.9% y/o/y, driven by gasoline prices, no pun intended. Food at home prices were unchanged m/o/m and up by 1% y/o/y but eating out is still running hotter. A full service meal price was higher by one tenth m/o/m and by 3.8% y/o/y while the quicker service also saw a one tenth increase after .6% in the month before and up by 5.2% y/o/y.

Services inflation ex energy rose .5% m/o/m and 5.2% y/o/y with again housing leading the way with respect to the rental calculation. OER was up by .4% m/o/m and 6% y/o/y. Rent of Primary Residence was higher by .5% m/o/m and 5.8% and does include a slightly raised allocation to single home rentals which have been running above apartments. As with apartments, we know the current blended rate is running lighter than these calculations but CPI will eventually catch up on a very lagged basis. Medical care costs were unchanged m/o/m which kept a lid on core prices after they rose by .5% in the month before. They are higher by 1.4% y/o/y. Health insurance prices after a string of 1%+ monthly gains were up by .4% m/o/m. Auto insurance prices continue to skyrocket, rising another .9% m/o/m and 20.6% y/o/y. The cost of maintenance/repair prices remained robust too, up by .4% m/o/m and 6.7% y/o/y. Airline fares jumped by 3.6% m/o/m but still lower by 6.1% y/o/y. Hotel prices were little changed after the 2.4% jump last month but are down .9% y/o/y.