We can't just snap our fingers back to 2%
Both headline and core saw one tenth greater than expected prints for January, up .3% and .4% m/o/m. The y/o/y gains were 2 tenths above the estimates at up 3.1% and 3.9% respectively vs 3.4% and 3.9% in the month prior. Energy prices were lower by .9% m/o/m and 4.6% y/o/y, partly offset by a .4% m/o/m and 2.6% rise in food prices. Eating out of home remains expensive with full service meal prices up .4% m/o/m and 4.3% y/o/y while more quick service prices are higher by .6% m/o/m and 5.8% y/o/y.
Services prices ex energy jumped by .7% m/o/m and 5.4% y/o/y. Rent of Primary Residence saw prices up .4% m/o/m and 6.1% y/o/y while OER was higher by .6% m/o/m and 6.2% y/o/y. Both are well above current reality but it was well below when rental prices were spiking over the past few years. Medical care costs are now really jumping, in part because of the more realistic health insurance calculations (up 1.4% m/o/m and have been rising 1%+ each month since late last year). They rose .5% m/o/m vs .4% in December and .5% in November. Price gains for auto insurance are out of control, spiking by another 1.4% in January alone after a 1.7% increase in the month before and are up 20.6% y/o/y. Fixing your car is pricey too, rising .8% m/o/m and 6.5% y/o/y. Travel got expensive again as hotel prices jumped 2.4% in January after a one tenth rise last month. They are up a more modest .6% y/o/y. Airline fares were higher by 1.4% m/o/m and a .9% increase in December, though down 6.4% y/o/y.
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