The FOMC statement nudges, doesn't push us to a Sept rate cut but Powell likely will

Again, the FOMC is leaving it to Jay Powell’s press conference in order to glean where the lean is on the timing of rate cuts as the statement had only modest changes, though still of note. The set up for that September cut was some tempering of the wording on the labor market. In June they said, “Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.” This was replaced with “Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.”

Also, there was a very modest tweak to the inflation comments but also a set up for a cut. In June they said, “there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.” Today that line reads, “there has been some further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.”