A few things

We are now wondering whether the Fed surprises us in a few weeks with a rate cut instead of waiting until September where the odds are 100% as priced by the fed funds futures and actually an additional 12% chance of 50 bps of cuts by then. Mary Daly, a voting member, though doesn't seem ready just yet for a July move. Speaking yesterday she said that while "confidence is growing that we're getting nearer to a sustainable path of getting inflation back down to 2%,...we have a lot more information to get before we can make any real determination." The next two weeks won't reveal 'a lot more information.' 

Following another negative print in the July NY manufacturing survey seen yesterday, Cass Freight's June index saw a 1.8% m/o/m drop to a four year low in shipments in June and were down 6% y/o/y. They said "Amid slowing economic growth, goods demand is still broadly flattish." Combine sluggish volumes with still excess trucking capacity and the Cass Inferred Freight Rate dropped by 1.4% m/o/m in June, "giving up part of the 3.9% jump in May to a six month high." 

We'll hear from JB Hunt tonight with earnings as it seems that the freight recession continues on but with hopes in the industry that we're more bouncing along the bottom rather than seeing it getting any worse. The issue too in the trucking industry is still too much capacity but that is slowing draining as firms close and/or merge.