Tariffs, ugh/Small business/Keep eye on JGB yields/Other

Got to get those tariffs in just a few months before some key states need to be won in November and yes, I beat up both sides over tariffs. By the way, with respect to steel in particular, the US relies on China for only about 2% of its steel imports so dumping of steel is not the issue here. Also, putting tariffs on all the key EV related stuff will just put cheaper EV's further out of reach for lower income consumers and continue to put a bid under inflation. 

Anyway, the April NFIB small business optimism index rose 1.2 pts m/o/m to 89.7 and which compares with 89.4 in February and 89.9 in January. So, we continue to bounce along the bottom. For reference, the 50 yr average is 98. 

Plans to Hire rose 1 pt to 12% after falling to the lowest since 2016 in March, not including Covid. This has been one key anecdote pointing to the slowing demand for workers on the part of small business. Job openings did rise though by 3 pts but just to about the 6 month average and off the smallest amount since January 2021. Compensation plans were unchanged m/o/m. Plans to increase inventories rose 1 pt but still is negative at -7% while capital spending plans were up by 2 pts but back to its 6 month average. 

Those that Expect a Better Economy fell 1 pt and remains deeply negative at -37%. After dropping by 8 pts in March, those that Expect Higher Sales got back most of that, rising 6 pts to -12%. There was no change in those saying it's a Good Time to Expand at 4%. For perspective it was at 3% in April 2020, during the heart of the shutdowns. 

Higher Selling Prices fell 3 pts after rebounding by 7 last month. Positively for the moderating inflation story, "A net 26% (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan price hikes in April, down 7 pts and the lowest reading since April of last year." The earnings outlook was up 2 pts but still well under zero at -27%. Finally, and of note, credit conditions tightened to the most in 5 months. The average rate on any loan was 9.3% vs 9.8% in March and 8.7% in February.