Trying to square all the labor market circles/The response to China's new housing initiatives/Other good stuff

As I take nothing at face value when it comes to economic data and markets and need corroboration in multiple places, I have to do the same with Friday's great payroll report, partly mitigated by a 14 yr low in the average workweek not including Covid and a record high in the number of multiple job holders where I don't believe too many people really want a 2nd job if the first one is enough to pay the bills. To confuse us all, including the Fed itself, we have to go back to the early September Beige Book and reread what was said about the labor market. Also, keeping in mind that the employment component in the ISM services index fell below 50 seen last week for September and this comment from S&P Global in the September Services PMI they produce, "employment dropped for the 2nd month running, albeit only marginally. Some companies reported lowering staffing levels in a bid to save costs but others reported staff shortages."

But let's just say Friday's report was the accurate gauge of the health of the economy, then the Fed's attempt at catching the inflation falling knive has just really cut them, instead of waiting for a SUSTAINABLE (I'll say it in big caps again) pace of around 2% inflation before getting aggressive in cutting interest rates. As markets sometimes do take the economic data at face value, it's no wonder the 10 yr yield is approaching 4% again, along with rising commodity prices, particularly oil and the China policy moves. It's still a sale and I still believe 5% will be seen again, timing unknown. And watching the price of gold, it does seem that ever rising US debts and deficits do now matter. 

Tell me if these comments sound like to you similar to what we saw Friday with payroll strength, though mostly from healthcare, education, leisure/hospitality and government. They don't and I'm as confused as ever. To confuse you even more though before we get to those Beige Book comments, the payroll establishment survey on Friday had its biggest seasonal adjustment for a September month since at least 1939. https://x.com/FoamOnTheRunway/status/1842351565199528085

Boston:

"Employment levels were unchanged on balance and no major layoffs were reported...Staffing contacts said that job creation had slowed owing to increased caution in the face of economic uncertainty. Employers reportedly became more selective about workers' qualifications and did not face substantial hiring difficulties."