I know a parabola when I see one/Other good stuff
I’ll start with this, my favorite Super Bowl commercial:
While looking at charts everyday for a long time I still consider myself an amateur technician and really only look at them for perspective rather than predictive purposes (as I'm not good at it) but there is one chart I've seen many times before and I know how it typically ends. That is a parabolic pattern. Whether technically in one or not, Nvidia's stock chart is in a form of parabola (put aside the fundamentals, its dominance right now and the exciting space it is in). I was with friends for lunch on Friday as we discussed its backbone status for generative AI and reminded people that Cisco in 1999 was considered the backbone of the internet providing the needed infrastructure for its buildout. I then found on Saturday someone who had the same idea and posted this chart, Cisco stock on the left from the mid 1990's to early 2000's and the current stock chart of Nvidia:
This is not a stock call and again, put aside your feelings on the fundamentals. And, this move higher can certainly continue. All I'm doing is giving food for technical thought in this incredible stock.
The Citi Panic/Euphoria stock market sentiment indicator continues to creep closer to Euphoria but not there yet. A read above .41 would quality and we currently stand at .30.
As we focus on the continued pain, for both lender and borrower, in the commercial real estate industry for those who have debt coming due, I wanted to quantify how big this market is. According to the last Flow of Funds statement from the Federal Reserve, that ended Q3 2023, the 'nonfinancial corporate business real estate market value' was at $17.2 Trillion. Non profits own another $4.5 Trillion. So, we're talking about an asset class north of $20 Trillion. Now, some of this value is in equity but you get a sense of how big this sector is where just a 10% reduction in market value is a $2 Trillion hit.
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