Claims data/Import prices jump/Mfr'g remains punk/Single family starts ok, multi family not

After the upside surprise seen last week in initial jobless claims (partly due to a bad seasonal adjustment on some NY public employees who can claim unemployment benefits during spring break but which they do every year), they remained elevated compared to the recent low trend for the week ended May 11th at 222k, 2k more than expected and vs 232k in the week before. Smoothing this out has the 4 week average ticking up to 218k from 215k and that is the most since November 2023. Also of note, and not subject to the NY quirk last week, continuing claims rose to 1.794mm from 1.781mm, remaining near the highest since November 2021. 

Bottom line, initial claims remain low but we just printed the 2 highest reads in a row since late January so let's keep a watch while continuing claims remain elevated. 

4 week avg Initial Jobless Claims

Continuing Claims

While markets breathed a sigh of relief that CPI was about in line, import prices in April far exceeded expectations with a headline jump of .9% m/o/m, triple the estimate and March was revised up to a .6% gain from .4% initially. Also, ex petro saw import prices rise by .7% m/o/m, well more than the forecast of up .1%. Price spikes were seen in food/beverage and industrial supplies but were muted for capital goods, autos/parts and consumer goods.