Consumer vibes/Bond yields/NFIB/UK jobs

In the NY May survey of Consumer Expectations survey seen yesterday, the answers to the inflation guesses were mixed. The one yr view fell one tenth m/o/m to 3.2%, was unchanged out to three years at 2.8% and rose two tenths for the 5 yr time horizon to 3%. So mix it all up and we're looking at expectations of around 3% inflation, still well above the 2% statistical hopes of the Federal Reserve. 

Price expectations for the necessities remain high. For gas, 4.8%, food, 5.3%, rent, 9.1%, medical care, 9.1% and college at 8.4%. As for home prices, they were unchanged at 3.3%. Whether realized or not (rent growth obviously now much less), the perception impacts consumer behavior. 

The job market results were mixed too. Unemployment expectations rose 140 bps to 38.6% for those seeing an increase and that is above the 12 month average of 37.8% but "the mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months decreased 2.7% percentage points to 12.4%, falling below the 12 month trailing average of 13.2%." Off the lowest level since April 2021, the probability of "finding a job if one's current job was lost increased by 1.3 percentage points to 52.2%." There was little change in expectations for earnings and household income. 

Spending expectations did slip by two tenths to 5% but has been steady between 5-5.2% over the last 6 months. Expectations for future credit access "deteriorated, with a larger share of respondents expecting tighter credit conditions a year from now, and a smaller share expecting easier conditions." There was a drop though in those who think they'll miss a minimum debt payment over the coming three months. 

Also of note, "Perceptions about households' current financial situations improved, with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Year ahead expectations also improved."

Finally, and file this with other stock market sentiment indicators, expectations for stock prices that they'll be higher 12 months from now rose to the highest since May 2021 at 40.5%.

My bottom line, we know the upper income consumer/saver is benefiting from interest income and higher stock prices while lower to middle income consumers are price conscious, value seeking and prioritizing spend on non-discretionary stuff.