Will the laundered minutes be used to close the gap?/Still a long runway ahead in the rate hike lags
The thing with the Fed minutes is sometimes they are 'laundered' in the sense that any post FOMC meeting cleanse/messaging the Fed wants to send, they have used the minutes release as a way to do so. I bring this up because we have a clear divergence in what the fed funds futures are pricing in with the number of rate cuts and what both the dots and the comments have been from Fed members, especially the new voting ones, 6 vs 3. So, if the Fed intends to highlight the difference again, today would be the way. For example, 'most/several participants only see a few rate cuts in 2024.' Now of course this is only as they feel today, both what's been priced in to the bond market and how Fed members predict where the fed funds will end up at year end and of course anything can change.
While Fed members are surely comforted by the slowdown in the pace of inflation, I don't believe they want to rest on any laurels. Just yesterday I saw this headline from the Journal of Commerce, "Asia-Europe ocean rates hit 14 month high after Red Sea attack on Maersk ship." From Reuters, "French shipping group CMA CGM will increase its container shipping rates from Asia to the Mediterranean region by up to 100% as of Jan 15 compared to Jan 1, it said in a notice posted on its website on Tuesday." The price will be $6,000 for a 40 ft long container vs $3,000. We know goods prices have round tripped to the pre Covid pace on a rate of change basis, back to zero. I don't think it stays there.
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