Focus shifts to economy & away from rate cuts/Some notable data points/A lot of good earnings comments

On Monday I wrote, "With expectations already priced in for further cuts in 2025, what would upset that paradise (Best of Both Worlds) would be if the economy slows further coincident with a continued rise in the unemployment rate as rate cuts may not be enough to stave that off. That's when bad news is bad news for stock and credit markets." It seems like we got a taste of that yesterday and tells me that a weaker than expected jobs number today will not be treated well either rather than cheering the greater likelihood of rate cuts.

An update on container shipping prices. The Shanghai to Rotterdam trip fell a touch, by $60 to $8,200 while the route to LA fell for a 3rd week by $194 to $6,740 and is off more from its recent high of $7,512. 

Shanghai to Rotterdam

Vehicle sales were light in July relative to expectations. They totaled 15.82mm at a SAAR vs the estimate of 16.2mm and that compares with 15.74mm in July 2023 and 16.82mm in July 2019. It's hard to parse out what was Hurricane Beryl related in Texas but there should have been a bounce back post June with the cyber attack. Affordability and the high cost of funding have to be influences too. 

The Apartment List National Rent Report on July activity was out yesterday and it rose for a 6th month m/o/m, measuring new leases, but still "over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market." Prices rose .2% m/o/m. Y/o/Y rents fell by .8%. Because of growing supply, the vacancy rate was 6.7%, the most since August 2020 and compares with about 6% pre Covid. Most of that excess supply is in the sunbelt states where most of the overbuilding took place. 

So many earnings calls so I'll try to be as brief as possible with them. The tone in my eyes/ears point to a clear economic slowdown underway.