Another contrarian idea/Company comments/Getting closer to the end of NIRP in Japan

I have another contrarian idea for you (previously this year it has been Hong Kong stocks and cannabis) and that is in the ag space, specifically corn and soybeans. While the price of cocoa is at a record high, corn closed last week at the lowest level since November 2020 at $4 per bushel. Soybeans the same at around $11.50 per bushel. I'm calling the bottom because I saw the CFTC data yesterday and speculative net shorts for each are now at record highs. When extreme positioning takes place for non-commercial traders, it's time to look at the other side. 

We had been long the fertilizer stocks until right after Russia invaded Ukraine and they were spiking along with crop prices. I've been waiting to get back in since and we just did on this major pullback. This is a highly correlated way to play the rise in row crop pricing, if it were to occur, and if corn and soybean prices rally, fertilizer prices should as well. 

Corn

Soybeans

Net Spec Shorts in Corn

Net Spec Shorts in Soybeans

When you hear a Fed member say that policy is 'restrictive' it's important to ask back, 'restricting what exactly?' I saw a Bloomberg News story yesterday that said "Blue chip companies have sold at least $153 billion of bonds in the US in February, setting a record for the month...The sales topped the prior record for February of $150.9 billion, set last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. The record comes on the heels of the busiest week in nearly two years, driven in part by a deluge of bonds sold to fund mergers and acquisitions. And dealers say more bond sales are on the way."