Sitemap - 2023 - The Boock Report
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
This is it/BTFP gets arb'd/Surcharges begin/PAYX, NKE see slowing, CCL killing it
Claims data more of the same/Mfr'g recession carries on
The euphoria needed to cool/Freight rates/De-dollarization?/GIS and KMX comments/Other
Consumer confidence lifts/Housing data older news with subsequent drop in mortgage rates
Single family builds filling the supply gap, multi family permits at 3 yr low
Builder sentiment, the split between big and small
The sting of higher rates/'Higher for longer in the trash bucket'?/Other
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Service sector continuing to keep the expansion going offsetting still mfr'g weakness
No ECB dot plot but they have The Press Leak instead
Core retail sales as expected with downward revisions/Firing's low, hiring's slow/Import prices/ECB
Mission Accomplished!? Not the view of the BoE/The pivot party has the Bull boat standing room only
The 'over' won and while Fed is confirming market pricing, market is taking it even further
Relative to market expectations, the over/under is 2
30 yr auction decent but certainly better than the weak 3s and 10s yesterday
A few things of note, including the mood of small business
Poor auctions, 3 yr worse than 10 yr/More on the thoughts of the consumer
The Barron's interest rate cover/Powell thoughts/Yen down on BoJ story
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Feeling good about the rate of change, still stressed by the price level
Quick comment from ZIP CEO ahead of payrolls/Auto news/Retail comments/Other
Jobs data, the slowdown in hiring continues
The end of NIRP seems near/A bunch of company comments
Who is in control now?/Gold/Other
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Powell tried to push back but that lasted only a few seconds in Treasuries
The likely chart on Jay Powell's wall/Dell cautious, Ulta rocking/Global PMI's
Pending home sales fall to lowest since at least 2001 but...
Another sign of the slowdown in hiring/Other stats
Beige Book summary, honing in on jobs market where "Demand for labor continued to ease..."
Some favorite Munger quotes/Rates/China/Make sure to read what Jabil said
The private credit craze/Rents/Credit/Pushing back on rate cuts/Other
State of consumer spending and the holiday dynamics/Labor market cracks/$ at 3 month low
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Thankful/Claims data improves, cap ex flat lines
The chase is on/Earnings commentary/Other
The one sentence I found most interesting
Smallest number of existing home closings since 2010
Credit tightening and slackening demand continues/The state of the US consumer
Mixed 20 yr auction but enough to rally Treasuries
Inflation of 143% gives Libertarianism a try in Argentina
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Again, prioritizing spend/Further disinflation/Soft NY mfr'g under the hood
CPI rundown, rate of change relief for markets, stress grows for consumers
Watching for where the credit cracks are forming
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
UoM confidence, lowest since May
The Powell word, tone game/Some big stock moves off earnings
Claims data, spread widens between hiring's and firings
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
One more thing on manufacturing jobs
The jobs data was weaker than expected across the board
"Let there be songs to fill the air"/Moody's warns/Overseas stuff
BoE sits tight too, but 3 wanted to hike/Muted firing's but slower hiring's/Productivity
A one word tweak, important messaging by it but something we already know
Jobs data, a clear moderation/Refunding news, 10 yr yield at low of day
Wages/Home prices/Mfr'g/Consumer confidence, all in one short note
One more thing, the intraday yen move on that headline
The BoJ leak is out, as reported by Nikkei
BoJ/Rents/History lesson on post robust GDP prints/Other
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Interesting set up ahead of BoJ meeting/Earnings commentary still sounds like a mixed bag economy
Contract signings lift a touch off lowest level in at least 23 yrs
Lagarde also flying in the clouds under the stars/GDP and claims data rundown
BoC gives us a Fed preview/Sentiment/Commentary still doesn't sound like a 4.5% GDP growth pace
Another Treasury yield scenario to think about/US PMI staying above 50
Yields/The BoJ debate/PMIs remain soft/Company comments
Another GLOBAL rise in long term interest rates that started AGAIN in Japan
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Another safety trade?!/Informative company comments/Yen at big level again
Powell still 'navigating by the stars under cloudy skies' but long rates still going their own way
Seasonality/Elon says "even a great ship in a storm has challenges."
This just doesn't sound like a 5.4% growth rate economy
Home building data and keep eye on multi family
Pencils down/Some company comments/Other
Prioritizing spend clearly evident here
Manufacturing recession likely continuing on
Gold/Housing/Bank comments and a good around the world from Jane Fraser
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Long end continues to go its own way/You know what the real safety trades are?/Bank comments
Sentiment/Wage growth/Some earnings comments
All the important stuff including consumer comments from Pepsi and LVMH
"If mercy's a business, I wish it for you"
Not just another Monday morning
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Jobs data, a lot of upside was from gov't jobs to Sept and accounted for all of the revisions
Corporate cost of capital/The behavioral consumer shifts being seen
Mary agrees with me too and look at this chart
Claims data and the market response
The balance sheet of a company is one thing, the financial situation of their customers is another
A dive into US service sector, both from ISM and S&P Global
Soft job gain, treasury yield response as lines get drawn
Mr. T makes my case/Purchase apps fall to fresh 28 yr low/Other notable stuff
An updated look at banking conditions from the Dallas Fed, important read
US mfr'g, looking at both ISM and S&P Global
All the relevant news that's fit to email
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Inflation, spending, income and the savings rate falls to lowest of the year.
Some relief on the inflation front/NKE and ACN comments/Other
Market sentiment getting more dour/Yields/Some company commentary
Neel and Michelle, please see the further tightening that has gone on
Data rundown on consumer confidence, housing and manufacturing
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
"All we need is just a little patience"
US mfr'g likely remains in contraction/Housing data
Market rates are tightening policy further
A higher for longer tap on the shoulder
The 'dot plot' should be renamed the 'dart board'
Canadian CPI/Multi family starts plunge
A look at retail and other things/TIC data too
Builder sentiment showing weaker knees in the face of both demand and supply challenges
Kishida vs Ueda is getting real and has implications for worlds bond markets/Other good stuff
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events:
NY mfr'g around flat line but optimism ahead improves again/Import prices
A few things of note/"Lagarde is living on Mars"
ECB/US retail sales/Claims data/PPI
PBOC rate tweak ahead of ECB/Hopes for a restock
An unfortunate cut to NY, NJ GDP estimates/Some interesting company comments
How consumers feel/Some bank exec comments, including from Dimon
Inflation talk ahead of CPI/Japan leading again global yield jump/Other good stuff
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Famous last words?/The arbiter of taste
Claims fall to lowest since February but Labor Day skews the figure
Rents/All-You-Can-Eat wings tonight/Yen
Beige Book, focusing in on job market comments
For full picture on US Services sector, don't just read the ISM release
That was not pretty action and continues today
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
China policy steps/Oil quietly at 1 yr high/PMI's/Rents/Earnings comments
Earnings call commentary and what's going on overseas
Sales lift but if you can find one, the prices are still 'too damn high'
Another 'Fed is done rally' but.../Other good stuff, including HP comments
More judicious with pace of hiring/Not feeling as good
The lost purchasing power/More mfr'g weakness/Best Buy hopeful/Other
His legacy is on the line here too
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
"We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies"
That was then, this is now/Retail comments both high and low
Claims data/Core capital spending flat lining
Amazing how we all look at the same data but still come to different conclusions
"Stagflation is an ugly thing"
The lack of choices slow home sales/Richmond joins NY in another mfr'g contraction
Try to separate out the Chinese consumer/Read what Macy's just said on its credit card business
The important Dallas Banking Conditions Survey...
The fate of the world to be decided here...
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Another pulse check on the US consumer/Sentiment/China/Other
Claims data/Mixed signals within Philly mfr'g and a rebound in inflation components
Rates/The state of the US consumer
Single family starts still lifting, multi family starts are now rolling over
Have we reached that sticker shock point? And do you know what a distribution transformer is?
Retail sales better, NY mfr'g softer, import prices hotter
Yields again the story as is China/Other, including what HD said
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
UoM consumer confidence down a touch, inflation expectations slip
Longer term inflation views/China/Sentiment/RL
Yields at high of day post auction
Unleash again the Chinese tourist on the rest of the world/Disney park comments/Other
Not as good as 3 yr but 10 yr auction was good
ZipRecruiter, don't ignore what Ian Siegel had to say about the labor market
Banks/Rents/Cars/Small Business/China
The pernicious impact of higher for longer on corporate cash flows
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Headline payrolls a bit light but other pockets of softness too
Rates/CEO confidence and some good earnings anecdotes
Follow up on firing's/hiring's and great color on the US service sector
Claims data and a pleasant surprise in productivity
This is much deeper than just a credit downgrade
ADP has some seasonal adjustment calculation issues I believe
More of an embarrassment and a bad look but...
US mfr'gs hard landing continues/Job openings shrink again/Look at chart on mfr'g construction
The BoJ telling us any rate rise won't be a straight line/And other good stuff
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Inflation, income, spending and other info on wage gains.
The BoJ/'Let there be songs to fill the air'/UPS wage-price relationship?
BoJ ready to tweak YCC? Markets moving
Contract signings for existing homes remains muted for reasons we all know
GDP gets help from lower deflator/Claims dip again
Powell did the right thing/More earnings comments/Other
Copy and paste '25 bps rate hike' back into the statement and leave everything else the same
New home sales and the strange housing market we have
Succinct Review of the Flood of Earnings Comments, great info I say
US July PMI falls to 5 month low
The inflation battle vs the war/Earnings comments of note/Stagflation in Europe
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Home sales, the tale of two markets
Claims data and mixed picture with Philly mfr'g
"I don't know what the hell is going on to be totally frank."
Oil/Wages/Bank comments/UK CPI relief/Ueda still patient?
The continued mix picture that is the US economy
Retail sales will lift Q2 GDP estimates
"The sky was yellow and the sun was blue"
NY manufacturing flatlining but that's better than regional peers
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
If you own stocks, feeling good, if not, not so much. Lower inflation helping too.
Waller said let's do it again/Great corporate earnings color/Other
Claims data, July 4th influence/PPI falls further
Elizabeth Warren's message for Jay Powell/Mixed earnings/DXY breaking down
Beige Book - I'm focusing on employment and wages here
BoC sets stage for Fed/Barkin comment notable
CPI, Fed will follow thru with one more, but that's it
CPI, Fed will follow thru with one more but that's it
Pre game inflation talk/Tight credit/RBNZ/Watch the yen
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Thanks ADP for throwing the knuckle ball but they're now similar ytd.
Higher rates and $ can't get out of its own way, and now watch the yen
ADP off the charts, about half coming from leisure, hospitality, breadth otherwise mixed/Claims
Bond yields/Auto sales/Transportation/Market sentiment pretty excited
Does manufacturing weakness eventually spill over to services or does the latter save the former?
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
In line inflation and miss on spending has yields back to unch and slightly down
The cost of capital testing pre SVB/Some stats and some anecdotes
Serious stagflation in the existing home market
"Hold on Tight and Don't Let Go" once sang the Knack as do employers now/Q1 GDP mostly pre SVB
Tighter for longer/Tug of war now with rents and labor costs
Hearing again about "prioritizing value"/Mexico and the peso benefiting from reshoring/Other
One more quick thing on new home sales
Quick review of the data dump on housing, confidence and manufacturing
Lagarde is determined/Tightening credit conditions/Mfr'g anecdotes/That 'high income household'
My new favorite index survey and the growing credit crunch it reflects
If this war ends.../Some data/The yen
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
"Growth remains dependent on service sector spending"
The economic slowdown is here and it's global/Other notable stuff
Home sales and Bowman wants to go again
3 weeks in a row now above 260k
Why are so many so nonchalant with the higher rate world we're now in?
"It seldom turns out the way it does in a song"
Housing starts jump, both single and multi-family
Organized labor wants to catch up but.../Other things of note
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Data dump and Lagarde talks tough
As many have forgotten to not fight the Fed, the Fed reminds everyone to not fight the Fed
Lower inflation is one thing, keeping it there is another
What some banks said and other stuff
It's the commitment to higher for longer that is most relevant right now
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Now the magazine cover?/I love you but...
Labor market antenna should be now up
The Bank of Canada pulls an RBA
More evidence of the goods recession/Purchase apps near 28 yr low